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MDP: Mayo Delirium Prediction tool

2021

An automated 19-variable hospital risk model that estimates the probability of developing delirium. It supports prevention and systematic assessment; it does not detect delirium already present.

At a glance

Purpose
Future-risk prediction
Population
Adult
Setting
General / acute hospital
Time
automated calculation from first-hospital-day EHR data; no bedside administration time
Items
19
Score or threshold
Low 5% or less; moderate 6-29%; high 30% or more; acute substance intoxication or withdrawal designated high risk

Primary validation papers

0 identified diagnostic-accuracy papers

Other forms of validation are described in the evidence section. What is counted?

Large-scale clinical implementation

Not yet reviewed.

A focused implementation review has not yet been completed for this profile.

Training and instructions

Public training resources have not yet been confirmed in this review. Check the linked developer or original source for instructions.

Start here

Tool and original sources

This record describes a method rather than a downloadable bedside form. The main source is linked below.

Open institutional page ↗ Read the full paper ↗

Original paper

  • Principal sourcePagali SR, Miller D, Fischer K, Schroeder D, Egger N, Manning DM, et al. Predicting Delirium Risk Using an Automated Mayo Delirium Prediction Tool: Development and Validation of a Risk-Stratification Model. Mayo Clinic proceedings. 2021;96(5):1229-1235. doi: 10.1016/j.mayocp.2020.08.049. PMID: 33581839.

    This paper reports the development and initial validation of MDP. It is the main source for the method, its intended use and the evidence available at publication.

    Open PubMed ↗
No eligible DTA study identifiedRelated context
Classification

Classification

Future-risk prediction

A tool may belong to more than one category. Select a linked category to see other relevant profiles.

Evidence

Diagnostic-accuracy evidenceNo eligible DTA study identified

Reported sensitivity and specificity

not applicable
Sensitivity
not applicable
Specificity

AUROC 0.85 in derivation and 0.84 in the validation allocation.

More evidence and citation details
Full name
Mayo Delirium Prediction tool
Evidence summary
external-validation
Citation
Pagali SR, Miller D, Fischer K, Schroeder D, Egger N, Manning DM, Lapid MI, Pignolo RJ, Burton MC Predicting Delirium Risk Using an Automated Mayo Delirium Prediction Tool: Development and Validation of a Risk-Stratification Model Mayo Clinic Proceedings. 2021;96(5):1229-1235. PMID 33581839
Download RIS ↗ Download BibTeX ↗

Primary validation studies

Distinct primary publications from the current diagnostic-accuracy audit. Reviews and repeated evaluations within one paper are not counted again. Overlapping cohorts have not all been reconciled. Read the counting rules and limitations.

No eligible diagnostic-accuracy paper is currently included in this audit. This does not mean the tool has never been validated. The source paper and other evidence on this profile may concern severity, reliability or another measurement purpose.

Copyright and reuse
Version
Original automated Mayo Delirium Prediction model reported in 2021; no public implementation verified
Information checked
2026-07-19

Instrument-specific terms apply. See the access and copyright policy or send a correction.

Base clinical review: 2026-07-29. Instrument description source check: 2026-09-05. Scope and limitations.