MDP: Mayo Delirium Prediction tool
2021An automated 19-variable hospital risk model that estimates the probability of developing delirium. It supports prevention and systematic assessment; it does not detect delirium already present.
Classification
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Tool and original sources
This record describes a method rather than a downloadable bedside form. The main source is linked below.
Original paper
- Principal sourcePagali SR, Miller D, Fischer K, Schroeder D, Egger N, Manning DM, et al. Predicting Delirium Risk Using an Automated Mayo Delirium Prediction Tool: Development and Validation of a Risk-Stratification Model. Mayo Clinic proceedings. 2021;96(5):1229-1235. doi: 10.1016/j.mayocp.2020.08.049. PMID: 33581839.
This paper reports the development and initial validation of MDP. It is the main source for the method, its intended use and the evidence available at publication.
At a glance
- Purpose
- Future-risk prediction
- Population
- Adult
- Setting
- General / acute hospital
- Time
- automated calculation from first-hospital-day EHR data; no bedside administration time
- Items
- 19
- Score or threshold
- Low 5% or less; moderate 6-29%; high 30% or more; acute substance intoxication or withdrawal designated high risk
Evidence
Reported sensitivity and specificity
AUROC 0.85 in derivation and 0.84 in the validation allocation.
More evidence and citation details
- Full name
- Mayo Delirium Prediction tool
- Evidence summary
- external-validation
- Citation
- Pagali SR, Miller D, Fischer K, Schroeder D, Egger N, Manning DM, Lapid MI, Pignolo RJ, Burton MC Predicting Delirium Risk Using an Automated Mayo Delirium Prediction Tool: Development and Validation of a Risk-Stratification Model Mayo Clinic Proceedings. 2021;96(5):1229-1235. PMID 33581839
Copyright and reuse
- Version
- Original automated Mayo Delirium Prediction model reported in 2021; no public implementation verified
- Information checked
- 2026-07-19
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Sources checked 2026-07-29. How profiles are prepared.